Donald Trump Is In Over His Head

Donald Trump is in over his head. His administration's economic nostalgia is driven by an impossible dream: a return to an idealized American past that never existed. This fantasy is fuelling reckless policies, disrupting markets, weakening the economy, and hurting the people Trump has fraudulently claimed to champion.

Trump and the economic ideologues surrounding him believe they can turn back time, resurrecting an era of unchallenged American manufacturing dominance. This belief underpins their aggressive tariff strategy - a deliberate attempt to reshape the economy. By imposing tariffs, they create volatility that pushes down U.S. Treasury yields and weakens the dollar—an intentional move with two primary objectives: reducing the government's debt refinancing burden, temporarily easing budgetary pressures, and lowering the cost of capital for domestic businesses, in the hopes of stimulating investment in American manufacturing.

Their theory is that a weaker dollar and lower yields will attract foreign investment and boost exports, leading to a manufacturing revival. But this ignores decades of economic evolution, global interdependence, and technological change. The 1950s and 1960s are long gone, and no policy—no matter how aggressive, how it's pitched, or who it hurts—can bring them back. Trump's ignorance of these realities is evidence that he does not understand the economy he is trying to manipulate.

Trump and his advisors are clinging to outdated economic theories, and while some of his supporters cheer the rhetoric, the real economy is taking the hit. Treasury yields have dropped from 4.8% to 4.3%, the dollar index has sharply declined, and stock markets are swinging wildly, responding to the uncertainty Trump deliberately cultivates. Investors now anticipate even deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts, a consequence Trump actively seeks by engineering economic turmoil.

Arguably, all is going according to the twisted plan. But Trump lacks the ability to control what happens next. And his gamble has consequences.

Unless a miracle occurs, his tariffs will keep driving up consumer prices and drag the U.S. into a 1970s-style stagflation crisis: high inflation, slow growth, and rising unemployment.

The warning signs are everywhere: rising grocery prices, market volatility, and shrinking consumer confidence. Even some of Trump's most loyal supporters are feeling the strain. Polls show frustration with his economic performance is spreading. Industries that once backed him are now calling for stability over chaos. Polymarket places the odds of a Trump-induced recession at 37% for 2025, an 18% jump since early March.

The beer industry faces higher production costs, forcing breweries to raise prices and cut jobs. The auto industry, another casualty, is in crisis, with layoffs and plant closures looming. Companies like PepsiCo and Conagra are scrambling for tariff exemptions to manage rising costs. The coffee industry is facing supply chain disruptions, increasing prices for consumers. And long-standing economic partnerships are suffering as Trump's reckless nationalism fractures relationships built over decades, damaging America's credibility and stability.

The very people Trump claims to champion, blue-collar workers, are bearing the brunt of his policies. Rising consumer prices erode wages. Manufacturing jobs remain stagnant as raw material costs climb. Small businesses, reliant on stable trade policies, struggle to navigate the chaos. What Trump wants to sell as a revival is, in reality, a slow-motion economic collapse.

Despite the damage, the Trump administration continues to spin the narrative. Officials claim tariffs are a necessary sacrifice for "economic sovereignty." But self-inflicted economic wounds are not sovereignty. And predictably, the fools and their enablers cannot see beyond their own slogans.

Trump and his gang envision a long-term resurgence of American prosperity. But the real long-term consequence will be a diminished role for America in the global economy. Once a leader, the U.S. is now isolating itself in pursuit of a fantasy.

Trump does not comprehend the cost of this retreat. He is incapable of processing his own actions, treating economic reality as just one more obstacle he can bully and bluster his way through. He has no real plan to address the impact of his strategy—just empty reassurances that he can wave a magic wand and things will somehow work out.

Trump's nostalgia was a powerful political tool on the campaign trail, but it can only be a disastrous failure when applied to economics. He envisions a return to an America where factories hum like they did in the 1950s, but the world has changed, and no tariff can reverse time.

Donald Trump lacks the capacity to adapt, to learn from his mistakes, or to adjust to new realities. All he has to offer are backward-looking, rose-tinted, masturbatory policies that jeopardize the future. He is in over his head, and the nation he bamboozled for a second time will pay the price.