Why the 2025 Elections May Be AfD's High Watermark

In the wake of JD Vance's AfD endorsement and Elon Musk's far-right pandering, Germany went to the polls this week. And frankly, the outcome could have been much worse; the federal elections delivered a victory to the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with Friedrich Merz poised to become the next chancellor. 

More than a few headlines are making bones of the fact that the Trump-favoured AfD secured a solid second place, with over 20% of the vote, doubling its share from 2021. And, although mainstream parties are maintaining their "firewall" against AfD, refusing to form a coalition with them, the party's surge does signal the increasing strength and influence of the far-right in Europe. 

But a breathless appraisal of an AfD surge misses some key points. Namely, that AfD underperformed expected polling and - critically - could not achieve the victory the world's milquetoast Nazis were hoping for. If Germany's elections can teach us one thing, it's this: the world order has not yet been reshaped in Trump, Putin, and Musk's image.

This may be the high watermark of AfD's ambitions. They sailed into the polls with the strongest tailwinds imaginable - an emboldened Russia, a global rightwing surge, a flailing German and international economy, an American capitulation to authoritarianism, a Vice-Presidential endorsement, the support of the world's richest man and his propaganda-spewing platform, and the cynical political boon of a spate of violent attacks by immigrants. And with all that, with every possible advantage, with the polls in their favor, they still fell short. It's hard to imagine what else could have turned the election in AfD's favor.

That's not to say that progressive values have won any seismic victory. Germany's likely next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has already shifted rightward in an attempt to counter AfD, with promises of immigration and economic reform that contrast with Germany's Merkel-era centrism and progressivism. The CDU has fractured and fragmented internally over how to handle AfD's rise, and the consequences of a hardline conservative approach, even one tempered by centrist ideals, may contribute to the destructive influence of rightwing ideals on the world stage.

And even if victory eludes AfD, their voters and believers are not alone. Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, and Geert Wilders have all found sympathetic ears across Europe, among a growing anti-EU sentiment and rightwing populist coordination across Europe. The "Battleground of History" may fall to far-right governance once again, and anyone celebrating AfD's loss as a win for the rest of us is performing an act of short-sighted optimism that may be admirable but is far from realistic.

Like much of the world, Germany is at a crossroads. The CDU's only path forward is to balance conservative policies with resistance to AfD, who will see Merz's conservatism as a clear endorsement of their twisted ideas. Any coalition formed by the CDU will face a splintering Germany, a Germany without a united vision for its future, and an economy stagnating and vulnerable to ideological exploitation. There are growing calls for Germany to outlaw AfD entirely, to ban it from the political sphere, but history teaches us that there is a risk of radicalization if AfD voters and supporters feel permanently shut out of the democratic process and a scorched earth approach to the party sets the CDU on a dangerous course.

The firewall against AfD remains, but rightwing pressure is increasing, and Germany's democratic intuitions are being tested. Germany's centrist and left-leaning parties need to find a way to adapt to the political climate of the Global Backslide or risk ceding the narrative and the initiative to their political and ideological enemies.

AfD has faltered. They have reached their high watermark and will fade, at least a little. The opportunity exists for Germany's leaders to rebuild, re-unify, and respond to their voters' economic anxieties and isolationist tendencies.